DAILY BLACKOUT SIMULATION
Internet blackout simulation update — day 21
This post does not say these economies are currently losing money because Iran is offline. It uses Iran's blackout duration as a time clock and simulates what a same-length domestic internet blackout would cost each economy on day 21.
Under the world scenario, a blackout of this length implies $45.12B in daily GDP loss and $795.72B in cumulative loss since day 1.
For the large-economy scenarios, the biggest simulated daily losses today are: United States: $13.19B/day; China: $7.08B/day; Germany: $1.92B/day.
Method: 2025 nominal GDP baseline × country-specific digital sensitivity coefficient × an outage-duration escalation curve that gets harsher as the blackout continues.
Top 10 economy simulations
| Economy | Simulated loss today | Cumulative simulated loss | Loss vs 2025 GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $13.19B/day | $232.62B | 0.76% |
| China | $7.08B/day | $124.91B | 0.64% |
| Germany | $1.92B/day | $33.90B | 0.68% |
| Japan | $1.75B/day | $30.86B | 0.72% |
| United Kingdom | $1.59B/day | $28.04B | 0.71% |
| France | $1.26B/day | $22.29B | 0.66% |
| India | $1.24B/day | $21.78B | 0.53% |
| Italy | $891.59M/day | $15.72B | 0.62% |
| Canada | $850.46M/day | $15.00B | 0.66% |
| Russia | $723.56M/day | $12.76B | 0.50% |
Method note
This is a simulation, not a claim that these losses are happening right now. The model uses the length of Iran's blackout as a day counter, then asks what the same-duration domestic internet blackout would cost for the world scenario and the top 10 economies by 2025 GDP.
This package does not estimate how much Iran's blackout is hurting other economies right now. Instead, it uses Iran's outage duration as the clock and simulates what a same-length local internet blackout would cost for the world scenario and for each top-10 economy using a 2025 GDP baseline plus a day-by-day escalation curve.
Signal summary: Fallback signal used because no live signal source was available during build.