DAILY BLACKOUT SIMULATION
Internet blackout simulation update — day 43
Interactive cumulative loss chart
The main chart shows world cumulative loss, world cumulative + accumulated shock, the United States, and China. The red mini-chart below isolates the daily shock premium so it does not distort the cumulative view.
This post does not say these economies are currently losing money because Iran is offline. It uses Iran's blackout duration as a time clock and simulates what a same-length domestic internet blackout would cost each economy on day 43.
Under the world scenario, a blackout of this length implies $55.46B in daily GDP loss and $1.91T in cumulative loss since day 1.
For the large-economy scenarios, the biggest simulated daily losses today are: United States: $16.21B/day; China: $8.71B/day; Germany: $2.36B/day.
Method: 2025 nominal GDP baseline × country-specific digital sensitivity coefficient × an outage-duration escalation curve that gets harsher as the blackout continues.
Top 10 economy simulations
| Economy | Simulated loss today | Cumulative simulated loss | Loss vs 2025 GDP |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | $16.21B/day | $558.96B | 1.83% |
| China | $8.71B/day | $300.14B | 1.55% |
| Germany | $2.36B/day | $81.45B | 1.62% |
| Japan | $2.15B/day | $74.17B | 1.73% |
| United Kingdom | $1.95B/day | $67.38B | 1.70% |
| France | $1.55B/day | $53.57B | 1.59% |
| India | $1.52B/day | $52.34B | 1.27% |
| Italy | $1.10B/day | $37.78B | 1.49% |
| Canada | $1.05B/day | $36.04B | 1.58% |
| Russia | $889.42M/day | $30.66B | 1.21% |
Method note
This is a simulation, not a claim that these losses are happening right now. The model uses the length of Iran's blackout as a day counter, then asks what the same-duration domestic internet blackout would cost for the world scenario and the top 10 economies by 2025 GDP.
The red mini-chart isolates the modeled world shock premium: a separate first-wave disruption layer that starts high, then decays over time as markets partially adapt.
The pink line in the main chart is the cumulative total after adding that shock layer to the world cumulative loss. The shaded band between pink and green shows how much of the total burden comes from accumulated shock rather than the direct blackout-loss model alone.
This package does not estimate how much Iran's blackout is hurting other economies right now. Instead, it uses Iran's outage duration as the clock and simulates what a same-length local internet blackout would cost for the world scenario and for each top-10 economy using a 2025 GDP baseline plus a day-by-day escalation curve. A second shock overlay models the first-wave disruption premium caused by the outage itself; it starts large, then decays with time.
Signal summary: Fallback signal used because no live signal source was available during build.